A Small Piece of the NFL Butterfly Effect

By: Jeff Newton

I thought the NFL Network would flop quickly. Even though it’s America’s favorite professional sport and a multi billion dollar empire, football season only lasts from early September to late January. For five months out of the year, analysts could break down matchups, pull up stats, talk about division races and even discuss fantasy selections for all the cyber nerds out there. I would be on board because, like most people, I’m an NFL junkie and little else matters from week 1 to the Super Bowl post game show. Okay, that’s great; we could all use more in season NFL coverage in our lives. But how can a station fill twenty four hour round the clock coverage during a seven month offseason?

Obviously, the higher ups at the NFL network know what they’re doing because I’m hooked. I love the station’s all time countdowns and the documentaries that place football in a grand historical context. I even like the studio shows which remind us that, soon enough, our Sundays will revolve around comfortable couches, fatty foods and personalized jerseys.

These shows get us excited, but nothing compares with actual game footage. NFL Rewind, basically a TiVo version of last season’s games, allows viewers to appreciate everything that makes football great. However, because we already know how the rest of the year played out for each team, and because several months have passed, we can place each game in a historical context. I recognized this a few nights ago when I got sucked in to Week 15: Chargers at Chiefs. I realized how two plays in a seemingly inconsequential game directly influenced one head coach and indirectly influenced two other head coaches, one franchise level quarterback and two teams.

I’ve rooted for the Chargers since the second grade. I’ve witnessed the Ryan Leaf era, a 1-15 season, and a 2003 defense that consistently surrendered six points in a heartbeat. Those teams were awful, but I always sat through the end of every loss. However, during December’s week 15 game at Kansas City, with the Chiefs up 21-3, I turned the game off. This was the last straw; Norv Turner had pissed me off one too many times. The season, for all intents and purposes, was over. This inevitable loss would mathematically eliminate San Diego from playoff contention, the pre-season Super Bowl frontrunners would be lucky to finish 7-9. Norv might as well have cleaned out his office the next day; the fans had enough of this underachieving nonsense. I called Dad, who was just as livid, and we spent the next ten minutes discussing who would succeed Turner as head coach. I campaigned for Bill Cowher, who seemed like the right guy to handle the high expectations. Dad suggested Bill Parcell’s and after we hashed it out, I actually sided with my old man. That’s how grim things looked for the Norv Turner era, we were debating his replacement with 2 ½ games left in this god awful season.

I pulled on some gym shorts, laced up my running shoes and grabbed my UC Santa Barbara student ID. I had better things to do with my afternoon than watch this debacle. I flipped the TV on one more time just so I could shake my head again and be done with it. Unfortunately for my workout plans, the Chargers were driving and I need to find more hobbies and there you go. So I sat there, alone in my room, for the rest of the third quarter with my arms folded like a young kid whose parents wouldn’t buy him an ice cream. I was angry and I wanted the Chargers to notice dammit! I’ll agree the word miracle gets thrown around too often but, thanks to some divine power, the Chargers stole a victory. Special teams ace Kassim Osgood recovered an onside kick, Vincent Jackson caught the game winning touchdown pass, and Kansas City missed a forty nine yard field goal attempt as time expired. This was a unique outcome; the Chargers never pull off a late game comeback victory, especially in a game they had no business winning. They played terrible for almost three quarters, capitalized on some good plays and needed every break in the world to beat a 2-11, banged up Chiefs team. The team won but they played mediocre and their playoff chances seemed grim at best. Denver, behind legendary head coach Mike Shanahan and their emerging quarterback Jay Cutler, would represent the AFC west in the playoffs.

Fast forward to late May 2009; Norv Turner is spending his third year as San Diego’s head coach, Mike Shanahan is out of football and Jay Cutler is taking snaps for the Chicago Bears. How’d this happen? On the surface, the answer involves several bullet points, but seems simple enough. Denver became the first team in NFL history to lose a three game division lead with three games to go while San Diego won their last three games, another division title, and an exciting overtime playoff game against Indianapolis. Mike Shanahan received a pink slip, Norv Turner received kudos for turning the season around; go figure. Denver then hires New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniel, he and Cutler get in a spat and now Cutler plays in the NFC North. The Broncos, Cutler, McDaniel, Shanahan and the Bears all endured a tumultuous offseason, to say the least. The funny thing, as I noticed while watching the Chiefs vs. Chargers replay, is that if the Chiefs win that game, the Broncos win the division with two weeks still left in the season. If that happens, Shanahan probably stays with Denver, McDaniel never coaches the Broncos, Cutler never gets traded, and the Bears still wonder who will be their starting quarterback. McDaniels, Cutler, and Broncos owner Pat Bowlen were the three most influential people during the NFL offseason. However, if you truly analyze the situation, this set of events revolves around Dwayne Bowe, Kassim Osgood and Connor Barth.

I held out a last glimmer of hope when Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers nestled a four yard touchdown pass to Malcolm Floyd to pull San Diego within five points. But they had every possible variable going against them: 1:19 left in the game, zero timeouts, and no chance to stop the clock if Kansas City recovered the onside kick. I’d only seen San Diego successfully recover onside kicks when the return team wasn’t expecting it, like if the coach randomly called for one in the second quarter or something. With a hands team waiting for the ball to bounce forward, on the other hand, San Diego’s recovery rate was zero percent at best. The Charger’s bomb squad lined up, Kansas City’s line inched closer and I mentally prepared for an anti-climatic three seconds. Nate Kaeding booted a line drive into the ground, Kansas City’s promising young wide receiver Dwayne Bowe couldn’t clutch the ball off the first hop, and Kassim Osgood dove for the pigskin like a guy whose team’s season depended on it. I didn’t hoot, didn’t holler, and didn’t scream in delighted exuberance. I didn’t do anything. I blankly glanced at the television, like a two year old child who sees the picture but doesn’t understand what it means. If Bowe cleanly fields the ball, Kansas City kneels twice and the Chargers fall to 5-9, the Broncos pop champagne in their locker room, and call screeners at XX radio in San Diego field thousands of cell phone messages from angry season ticket holders demanding Norv Turner’s resignation. These scenarios also apply if Osgood doesn’t bust out his best Mr. Fantastic impression. Instead of a wild finish, the opponents would have been politely shaking hands at midfield, with the clock quietly ticking down to: 00. LaDainian Tomlinson and the other 52 Chargers would have plenty of free time come playoff season.

You might argue that San Diego still needed a touchdown with less than eighty seconds left in the game and that Kansas City’s defense largely determined the outcome. The way the fourth quarter played out, though, with a passing attack clicking on all cylinders against a worn out, banged up Chiefs secondary, even a grumpy cynic like me expected a go ahead touchdown. Sure enough, Rivers found Jackson in the end zone from ten yards out with just over 30 seconds left. I knew San Diego scored too quickly, their pass defense was just that bad. Sure enough, after some quick first downs and a delay of game penalty against the Chargers special teams unit, Chiefs kicker Connor Barth lined up a forty nine yard field goal attempt for the win. He was going to make that kick, I had no doubt. I kept thinking of Al Pacino, throwing his famous tantrum in the Godfather III; they pulled me back in just so they could punch me in the gut.

The Chargers should have folded, should have packed it in when it was 21-3, they could have saved me one hour and a crushing sense of assured agony. Why did they battle back? Why did they claw their way back into this game? Why do they put me through this every Sunday? I’d never bought a pack of cigarettes, but this seemed like a great place to start. Barth planted his left foot, the kick sailed cleanly past the fully extended arms of every Chargers special teamer, and I braced myself for the heartache. The kick looked good off the foot, then it started slicing left, then it sliced a little more left…no way. He missed it! He missed it! Oh my god, he missed it, Chargers win! The world is beautiful, children are precious, someone give me a puppy to hug. Okay, the Chargers weren’t going to the playoffs, and this season looked like a monumental disappointment, but a win is a win baby. I was all alone, but the Chargers finally got me an ice cream cone.

The Chargers didn’t clinch the AFC West title that day. They didn’t don championship caps and sift through confetti until week 17, after they beat Denver in a winner take home showdown in San Diego. Denver shot themselves in the foot, as they lost their last three games when one win would have put them in. I just can’t help but think that the NFL would look a lot different if KC smothers that onside kick and runs out the clock, or if Barth’s last second kick doesn’t tail left. Denver would have had at least one home playoff game and as Larry Fitzgerald and the Cardinals showed last winter, teams can make unexpected runs in the playoff. Pat Bowlen wouldn’t fire a hall of fame coach over an AFC west title for a young team plagued by a shoddy defensive unit. I’ve played the “what if” game: I’ve pictured how the NFL would look if Kansas City wins that game. I picture Norv Turner as the new offensive coordinator for the Detroit Lions. I picture Bill Parcells, the big tuna himself, trading barbs with beat writers at Charger Park. I picture Shanahan praising his young quarterback during the Broncos’ first big press junket for the 2009 season. I picture Bears fans covering their eyes after Kyle Orton throws another ill advised interception.

I don’t have some grandiose conclusion that ties these series of events together. I just chuckle at the possibility that a 2-11 Chiefs team greatly influenced the chain of events that led to an intense, often heated, NFL offseason. At the very least, the Bears front office should send Connor Barth and Dwayne Bowe a fruit basket.